Collateral Damage: The Immeasurable Costs Resulting from American Political Realignment
By: Derek Devon (email: derekdevon17@gmail.com)
Proud Canadian and Longtime Smerconish listener and fan, Author of “A Letter Guide for Rebecca” and writer and producer of “The Mingle Effect” available on Spotify and other streaming music services
Introduction
The United States and Canada have historically shared what was once described as "the world's most successful bilateral relationship" (Thompson, 2017). For generations, this partnership was defined by deep economic integration, shared defense priorities, and cultural exchange across the world's longest undefended border. However, the political realignment in the United States, particularly during the Trump administrations (2017-2021 and 2025-present), has fundamentally altered this relationship in ways that appear irreversible. While economic indicators and market fluctuations provide quantifiable metrics of policy impact, they fail to capture the full extent of the damage to international relationships, trust, and diplomatic capital that has occurred.
This paper examines the multifaceted consequences of American political realignment on US-Canada relations, with particular focus on tariff policies, trade disputes, and explicit challenges to Canadian sovereignty. Beyond measurable economic impacts, this analysis explores the permanent degradation of diplomatic trust, diminished international standing, and erosion of shared values that collectively constitute significant "collateral damage" in what was once North America's most stable bilateral relationship. The evidence suggests that Canada-US relations have crossed a threshold from which there is no return to the pre-2017 status quo, compelling Canada to fundamentally reimagine its place in the global order and pursue new strategic partnerships beyond the North American continent.
Historical Context: What Has Been Lost
Economic Integration and Mutual Prosperity (Pre-2017)
Prior to recent political realignments, the economic relationship between the United States and Canada represented one of the most integrated in the world. Bilateral trade exceeded $1.7 billion daily, with nearly 400,000 people crossing the border each day for business, tourism, and family visits (Council on Foreign Relations, 2019). Key milestones in this economic integration included:
● The 1965 Auto Pact, which created a continental automotive market
● The 1989 Canada-US Free Trade Agreement
● The 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
● Integrated supply chains across numerous industries including energy, manufacturing, and agriculture
This economic integration provided stability and mutual benefits to both nations' economies, creating millions of jobs on both sides of the border and establishing predictable frameworks for business planning and investment. By 2017, the relationship was characterized by deep interdependence and mutual prosperity that seemed unassailable.
Defense Cooperation and Shared Security (Pre-2017)
The United States and Canada maintained robust defense cooperation since World War II, formalized through:
● North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) established in 1958 ● NATO alliance membership and joint military operations
This deep security integration protected both nations and represented a cornerstone of North American defense strategy for decades. The notion that either country could represent a security threat to the other was, until recently, considered inconceivable.
The Fracturing Relationship: A Permanent Shift
The Trump Administration Eras (2017-2021, 2025-Present)
The period spanning 2017-2021, coinciding with the first Trump administration, marked a significant shift in US-Canada diplomatic relations, placing considerable strain on long-standing trust. The "America First" policy prioritized US domestic interests at the expense of international partnerships, including that with Canada. This approach manifested in several key events and policies that triggered diplomatic friction:
● Imposition of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports in 2018, unjustifiably justified on "national security" grounds
While some anticipated a normalization under the Biden administration (2021-2025), the return of President Trump in the 2024 election decisively ended any possibility of returning to the pre-2017 relationship. As documented in the Congressional Research Service report, the re-election "once again injected a significant degree of uncertainty into the US-Canada relationship, potentially reversing some of the progress made under the Biden administration" (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47620/4). Even before assuming office for his second term, President-elect Trump renewed threats of imposing tariffs on imports from Canada, citing concerns over trade imbalances and border security (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47620/4).
Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: The Fatal Blow to Trust
The imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018, briefly lifted during USMCA negotiations, then reimposed in March 2025, represents perhaps the clearest evidence that the relationship has suffered irreversible damage. As noted in the Energy Policy Institute at Columbia University analysis:
"The US justified this action on national security grounds, arguing that the tariffs were necessary to protect domestic producers. Canada vehemently condemned the reimposition of these tariffs, viewing them as unjustified and harmful to the deeply integrated steel and aluminum industries in both countries."
(https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/the-impact-of-trump-tariffs-on-us-canada-minerals-and metals-trade/)
The impact of these tariffs has been significant. For Canadian steel and aluminum producers, the tariffs have increased the cost of exporting to their largest market, affecting their competitiveness and profitability. Downstream industries in both countries have faced increased costs and supply chain disruptions. Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of US goods, mirroring the value of the US tariffs imposed on Canadian steel and aluminum. (https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-ca/knowledge/publications/406cab29/us-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-and-canadian-retaliatory-tariffs-now-in-effect).
The repeated use of "national security" justifications for these tariffs has been particularly damaging to the relationship. By implicitly positioning Canada—a steadfast ally in every major conflict of the 20th and 21st centuries—as a potential security threat, the United States has shattered the foundation of trust upon which the bilateral relationship was built.
The Ultimate Threat: Challenges to Canadian Sovereignty
Perhaps most alarmingly, President Trump's "repeated suggestions about the possibility of Canada becoming the 51st state of the United States, often linked to economic pressure, were perceived as a significant affront to Canadian sovereignty and generated considerable anxiety and distrust within Canada" (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47620/4). While often dismissed by some American commentators as mere rhetoric, polling data reveals that Canadians take these threats seriously:
● A March 2025 poll by the Angus Reid Institute found that 54% of Canadians believed President Trump was serious about his annexation rhetoric
These unprecedented challenges to Canadian sovereignty demonstrate that the relationship has crossed a threshold from which there can be no return to the trust and goodwill that once characterized US-Canada relations.
Tourism Tensions: Cross-Border Travel Declines in a Strained Relationship
The tourism sector between Canada and the United States has experienced significant disruption following the political and economic tensions that emerged post-January 2025. Data from early 2025 reveals a pronounced downturn in cross-border travel, with Canadian residents' return trips by automobile from the US declining by 23.0% year over year, and air travel decreasing by 13.1% compared to February 2024. (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/topics-start/canada-united-states/travel) US-resident trips to Canada by automobile similarly decreased by 7.9% in the same period. (https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250310/dq250310d-eng.htm) The decline in land crossings has been so significant that it resembles levels seen during pandemic-era travel restrictions. (https://www.travelpulse.ca/news/impacting-travel/like-covid-all-over-again-canadian-cross-border-travel-drops-nearly-500k-in-february) This shift can be attributed to multiple factors, including increased costs from tariffs, political tensions stemming from US rhetoric about potential annexation, and growing Canadian nationalistic sentiment, with a poll indicating that 62% of Canadians plan to avoid the US for at least the next year amid these political tensions. (https://abacusdata.ca/canadians-plan-to-avoid-the-u-s-amid-political-tensions/)
Projections for the remainder of 2025 suggest further deterioration in cross-border tourism, particularly regarding Canadian travel to the US. Tourism Economics forecasts Canadian visits to the US to plummet by 20% in 2025 (https://apnews.com/article/us-travel-canada-europe-international-tourism-22294ec17518cd28450cb3c0227b8351), while the US Travel Association warns that even a 10% reduction could result in 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses in the US tourism sector. (https://www.ustravel.org/press/potential-results-decline-canadian-travel-united-states) Flight Centre Travel Group Canada has reported a 40% drop in leisure bookings to US destinations in March 2025 compared to the previous year, with one in five customers cancelling US trips in the preceding three months (https://www.internationaltradecomplianceupdate.com/2025/03/04/trump-tariffs-canada-retaliatory-measures-implemented-march-4-2025/), and advance bookings between Canada and the US for summer 2025 have plummeted by over 70%. (https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2025/1/13/canada-pressured-to-meet-nato-2-percent-guideline) Adding to these challenges, new US policies requiring foreign visitors staying longer than 30 days to register with American authorities, effective April 11, 2025, may further deter Canadian travel. (https://globalnews.ca/news/11074444/canadians-travel-us-registration-rules-explained/) This significant decline in cross-border tourism represents another dimension of the collateral damage resulting from the deteriorating relationship between these historically close allies.
Real World Example: The Maple Leaf
The deterioration of US-Canada relations has manifested in unexpected ways that reveal how deeply political tensions have permeated everyday interactions. In March 2025, a seemingly trivial incident involving cake decorations at a Florida supermarket chain illustrated the real-world impact of strained bilateral relations.
As mentioned in Michael Smerconish’s Newsletter ( 03/19/2025 - Watch: Butch and Suni Return to Earth), and reported by Tampa Bay Times columnist Stephanie Hayes (2025), Publix supermarkets declined to decorate cakes with the Canadian flag, providing only a note stating "Can't do other flags, Just American flag" when a customer attempted to order a cake featuring the Canadian maple leaf. This incident occurred against the backdrop of President Trump's ongoing trade disputes with Canada and controversial statements suggesting Canada might become "the 51st state," rhetoric that Canadians broadly viewed as an assault on their sovereignty.
The journalist's investigation revealed inconsistent explanations from the supermarket chain, with Publix representatives citing "skill levels" rather than policy as the reason for declining to depict the Canadian flag—despite the relative simplicity of the maple leaf design and ignoring the written note on the invoice.
This seemingly minor controversy speaks to a larger cultural shift. As Hayes (2025) observed, "Without more information, an apparent ban on international cake flags falls into the bucket of so many American institutions tiptoeing through the hot coals of politics... Every little erosion of risk dulls the culture into a palatable, pasty blob of Americana, into a cake with red bars and no leaves."
The article prompted a response from Canadian citizen Derek Devon (and author of this paper), a seasonal Florida resident (Snowbird), who spends approximately $24,000 USD annually in Florida over the past several winters. In my letter, I announced my decision to permanently relocate my 41-foot sailboat called “IT-GIRL” from Florida to Mexico, a country that "still treats us as friends and allies." I emphasized that the issue transcended mere economics: "This isn't just about money or trade—it's about respect and recognition of who we are as a nation" (Devon, 2025 Response Letter to Tampa Bay Times article).
My reaction exemplifies the profound sense of betrayal felt by many Canadians. Referencing my deep personal connections to the United States, including attending an American university and friendships with American citizens, I nevertheless concluded that "a line has been crossed." My decision to withdraw my economic contribution from Florida and the United States entirely represents a small but meaningful example of the tangible costs of deteriorating relations.
Perhaps most revealing was “this authors” explanation of what I perceive as fundamental Canadian values, illustrated through a hypothetical scenario from my letter to the Tampa Bay Times, which I will simply repost:
“Let me try to illustrate the Canadian mindset with a scenario that might help: Imagine if Ontario's Premier (Doug Ford) suddenly cuts power to the US, and your president’s response is to mobilize troops along our border with instructions to’ take control of all our power facilities in 3 days’. Then suppose Venezuela seized on this opportunity, with the American Military all along the 5,525 mile Canadian border, to attack your southern border with their army’s and tattooed gangs while your forces were distracted with Canada. Do you know what Canadians would do? Without hesitation, we'd post a sign at our border that reads: "Sorry to our American friends, we had to immediately head to your southern border to fight to defend you. After we secure your southern border, we will return to our post here in Canada to defend our Sovereignty from you. Trust you will understand because it’s a Canadian thing!" That's who we are as Canadians, Stephanie.. We defend our friends first, even at our own risk. Don’t believe me? Go back and read about WWI or WW 2, 911, Iran Hostage, California Wildfires etc etc . This reaction is purely Canadian—it's woven into our national character. Our DNA. Unfortunately, recent actions suggest America can no longer make similar claims about prioritizing its most loyal allies.”
My letter concluded with the sobering assessment that "some wounds take generations to heal," suggesting that the damage to the US-Canada relationship may extend far beyond the current political climate—a sentiment echoed in polling data showing increasingly negative Canadian perceptions of the United States.
This real-world example demonstrates how high-level political conflicts cascade down to affect ordinary citizens and businesses, ultimately resulting in tangible economic losses through withdrawn tourism and spending, damaged cultural exchange, and perhaps most significantly, the erosion of personal goodwill that has historically sustained the relationship through previous periods of disagreement.
Measuring the Permanent Damage: Beyond Economic Metrics
Public Opinion and Trust: Quantifiable and Irreversible Shifts
Public opinion research provides measurable evidence of relationship deterioration that appears to be permanent rather than transitory:
● Canadian favorable views of the US fell significantly, with only 40% of Canadians holding a favorable view of the US as of June 2024
This polling data reveals a fundamental shift in Canadian perception of the United States from trusted ally to potential threat, a change that appears to be accelerating rather than reversing over time.
Impact on Canadian Identity and Nationalism
The political shifts in the United States since 2019 have had a notable impact on Canadian national identity and feelings of national pride. As the American University analysis observes:
"The rhetoric and actions emanating from the US, particularly during the Trump administration, appear to have spurred a strengthening of Canadian national identity, often defined in contrast to American policies and values. The imposition of tariffs and the suggestions of annexation have been perceived by many Canadians as direct challenges to their sovereignty, fostering a sense of collective resolve and a renewed focus on Canadian interests."
(https://www.american.edu/sis/news/20250321-whats-next-for-canada.cfm)
This period has also witnessed a rise in "Buy Canadian" sentiment, with increased public support for bolstering Canada's economic independence and reducing its reliance on the US market. The perceived unpredictability and at times hostile stance of the US have prompted Canadians to re-evaluate the long-standing assumptions about the bilateral relationship and to consider a future where Canada asserts a more distinct and independent role on the world stage. (https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/u-s-canada-ties-may-face-even-bigger-trouble/).
The Reality Behind the Rhetoric: Misrepresenting the US-Canada Trade Relationship
An examination of the deteriorating US-Canada relationship would be incomplete without addressing a critical factor that has fueled tensions: the consistent misrepresentation of trade figures by US political leadership. These mischaracterizations have directly contributed to public misconceptions and provided justification for policies that have damaged bilateral relations.
The Energy Factor: Understanding the True Nature of the Trade "Deficit"
When examining US-Canada trade statistics, it becomes evident that the overall trade deficit is primarily driven by a single factor: energy imports, particularly crude oil from Alberta's oil sands. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2023, the United States experienced a goods trade deficit of $67.9 billion with Canada.
(https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-december-and-annu al-2023). However, this headline figure obscures crucial context that is rarely mentioned in political discourse.
The Canada Energy Regulator reports that Canadian exports of crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, and natural gas liquids to the US were valued at approximately $163 billion in 2023. (https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2025/market-sna pshot-overview-of-canada-us-energy-trade.html). Crude oil alone accounted for between $93 billion and $130 billion of this total, representing the single largest category of Canada's exports to the United States.
Most significantly, detailed analysis indicates that if energy trade is excluded from the equation, the United States actually maintains a trade surplus with Canada.
(https://analyzify.com/hub/us-canada-trade-statistics). This crucial context is consistently omitted when US political leadership characterizes the trade relationship as unfair or harmful to American interests.
The Strategic Value of Canadian Energy Imports
The substantial US imports of Canadian energy products, particularly crude oil, is not merely a commercial relationship but a strategic asset for American energy security. Canada provides a stable, secure, and reliable source of energy from a trusted ally, reducing US dependence on less stable regions of the world. As the US Energy Information Administration has documented, Canadian crude oil has become increasingly important to US refineries, particularly those designed to process heavier crude varieties like those from Alberta's oil sands. (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62183).
American refineries have made significant investments to process this heavier Canadian crude, creating an interdependent relationship that benefits both economies. These refineries transform Canadian crude into value-added products for domestic use and export, supporting American jobs and economic activity. When accurately characterized, this energy relationship represents a strategic advantage rather than an economic liability.
The Impact of Misrepresentation on Public Opinion
The persistent mischaracterization of the trade relationship has had demonstrable effects on public opinion in both countries. By portraying trade deficits in isolation without the crucial context of energy flows, political rhetoric has fostered a narrative of inequity where a more accurate picture would reveal a balanced and mutually beneficial relationship.
A recent Angus Reid Institute poll found that 54% of Canadians believed President Trump was serious about annexation threats (https://angusreid.org/trump-carney-51st-state-canada-usa/), suggesting that rhetoric about trade has escalated to a point where Canadians perceive a genuine threat to their sovereignty. Meanwhile, American public opinion has been shaped by incomplete information, with many unaware that the trade "deficit" with Canada is primarily driven by energy imports that serve America's strategic interests.
The impacts of these misrepresentations extend beyond political discourse to real economic consequences. Tensions arising from distorted trade narratives have contributed to decreased cross-border investment, supply chain disruptions, and most tangibly, retaliatory tariffs that harm businesses and consumers in both countries.
Diplomatic Costs of Trade Misrepresentation
The diplomatic cost of trade misrepresentation has been substantial. Canadian diplomats have repeatedly attempted to correct the record, providing detailed data on the true nature of the trade relationship, only to be met with continued mischaracterization in public statements by US leadership. This pattern has contributed significantly to the erosion of trust that now characterizes the bilateral relationship.
As former Canadian Ambassador to the United States David L. Cohen noted in 2019,
"We come to the table with facts and figures... and we're confronted with statements that have no basis in reality" (https://as.cornell.edu/news/us-canada-relationship-entering-sad-chapter). This fundamental disconnect between evidence-based policy discussion and politically motivated rhetoric has made meaningful diplomatic progress increasingly difficult.
The continued misrepresentation of trade figures represents not just a failure of accurate economic analysis but a diplomatic strategy that has prioritized political narratives over factual engagement with a crucial ally. As both nations grapple with the consequences of deteriorating relations, a return to evidence-based discussions of trade would be an essential first step in rebuilding the damaged relationship.
A Modest Proposal: Eliminating the "Deficit" by Eliminating Oil
If the United States remains fixated on the headline trade deficit figure of approximately $67.9 billion, Canada could propose a straightforward, if somewhat impish, solution: simply reduce crude oil exports to the United States by precisely that amount.
This "balancing measure" would instantly eliminate the trade deficit that has become such a political fixation. The United States and Canada would achieve the perfect equilibrium of trade that seems so important to certain American politicians. Problem solved! The two nations could then proceed with their relationship on theoretically equal footing, with neither side able to claim they're being "taken advantage of."
Of course, this proposal has a few minor drawbacks. American refineries specially designed to process heavy Canadian crude would sit idle. Gasoline prices across the United States would likely increase substantially as refiners scramble to source alternative supplies from perhaps less reliable global partners. Approximately $67.9 billion worth of energy security would vanish overnight. But surely these are small prices to pay for the satisfaction of a perfectly balanced trade ledger.
On the bright side, the reduced demand for gasoline might be partially offset by the dramatic decrease in Canadian tourism to the United States. As documented in the Tampa Bay Times article and Derek Devon's response letter, Canadian visitors are already reconsidering their travel plans to Florida and other American destinations. The 3.2 million Canadian visitors who annually travel to the United States—spending billions on accommodations, dining, entertainment, and yes, fuel—could redirect their tourism dollars to Mexico and other countries that "still value international friendship, trust and respect." The resulting drop in gasoline consumption would surely help compensate for those idle refineries.
The absurdity of this "solution" underscores the fundamental misunderstanding of what trade deficits actually represent. The energy trade between Canada and the United States isn't a scorecard to be balanced but a complex, mutually beneficial relationship that serves the strategic and economic interests of both nations. The fixation on deficit figures without context has led to policies that harm both countries while solving a "problem" that largely doesn't exist. Canadian officials have, thus far, refrained from suggesting such a measure—perhaps understanding that eliminating oil exports to score political points would represent the same short-sighted approach to international relations they've been subjected to. Nevertheless, the thought experiment serves to highlight just how counterproductive the current focus on trade balances has become.
Security Cooperation Under Permanent Strain
While NORAD modernization efforts continue and Canada remains committed to the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, the security relationship has suffered irreparable damage:
● The use of "national security" justifications for economic tariffs has undermined the notion of shared security interests
These shifts suggest that while formal security cooperation may continue out of necessity, the implicit trust and shared worldview that once underpinned these arrangements has been permanently altered.
Security Implications: The Fragile Future of NORAD and Continental Defense
The deterioration in US-Canada relations threatens to undermine one of the most successful binational military collaborations in modern history—the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). Established in 1957 and formalized in 1958, NORAD has served as the cornerstone of continental defense for over six decades, operating with equal responsibility to both governments and drawing staffing from both nations' militaries. (https://www.norad.mil/About-NORAD/NORAD-Agreement/)
Despite official statements from both governments consistently reaffirming their commitment to NORAD and its ongoing modernization efforts, significant concerns have emerged about the sustainability of this vital security partnership. In April 2025, General Gregory Guillot, Commander of NORAD and US Northern Command, explicitly warned that the escalating bilateral tensions could impact NORAD's operational effectiveness, stating that Canadian withdrawal would "severely under-resource the crucial northern approaches to North America, leading to a significant degradation in domain awareness capabilities." (https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2025/04/how-norad-could-be-hurt-us-canada-tensions/404210/) This vulnerability is particularly concerning given Canada's substantial commitment to NORAD modernization—a $38.6 billion investment over twenty years announced in June 2022, including critical collaborations with Australia on Over-the-Horizon Radar technology for enhanced Arctic surveillance. (https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2025/03/18/prime-minister-carney-strengthens-canada-security-and-sovereignty)
Prime Minister Carney's declaration that the "centuries-old U.S.-Canada relationship" is now "over" signals a profound shift in political sentiment that could have far-reaching implications for security cooperation, potentially compelling Canada to pursue alternative strategic partnerships beyond North America. (https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2025/04/how-norad-could-be-hurt-us-canada-tensions/404210/)
The persistent American rhetoric questioning Canadian sovereignty—including suggestions about potential annexation—fundamentally undermines the foundation of trust essential for effective security collaboration, raising troubling questions about the future of continental defense in an era of evolving threats from actors like Russia and China.
Canada's Strategic Pivot: From Dependence to Diversification
Economic Diversification: Reducing Reliance on the US Market
In response to the permanent shift in US-Canada relations, Canada has begun actively pursuing economic diversification strategies to reduce its historical overdependence on the US market:
● Pursuit of trade agreements with other global partners, particularly in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region
As noted in a Peace Diplomacy analysis, "the unpredictability of US trade actions could also lead Canadian businesses to explore diversification of their trade relationships with other partners, seeking greater stability and reduced reliance on the US market." (https://peacediplomacy.org/2025/01/21/rethinking-canadas-economic-sovereignty-in-an-era-of american-unpredictability/)
The new economic reality has also influenced Canadian domestic politics, with the resignation of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister and the subsequent election of Mark Carney as the new leader of the Liberal Party and the country. Prime Minister Carney, a former central banker and economist, stepped into this role at a particularly delicate juncture in US-Canada relations, signaling a potential shift in Canada's approach to navigating the complexities of dealing with a renewed Trump administration.
(https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/u-s-canada-ties-may-face-even-bigger-trouble/).
Safeguarding Sovereignty: Legal and Political Responses
In direct response to annexation rhetoric and economic pressure, Canada has begun developing formal mechanisms to safeguard its sovereignty:
● Legal preparations to resist potential US annexation attempts through Canadian courts
● Strategic economic policies designed to reduce vulnerability to US economic pressure
● Political messaging emphasizing Canadian independence and sovereignty
As noted in the Institute for Research on Public Policy analysis "Canadian courts must be ready to resist U.S. annexation (https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/march-2025/canada-us-annexation-defences/), the threat has been taken seriously enough to warrant formal legal preparations, demonstrating the profound shift in how Canada views its relationship with its southern neighbor.
Enhancing International Standing Beyond North America
While the US-Canada relationship deteriorates, Canada has actively worked to enhance its global standing through:
● Recommitment to multilateral institutions abandoned or criticized by the US
● Positioning as a reliable alternative partner for nations seeking stable trade relationships
● Emphasis on Canadian values that increasingly diverge from those of the United States
According to the Congressional Research Service report, the "perceived unpredictability and at times unilateral actions of the United States under the Trump administration created an opportunity for Canada to potentially enhance its standing as a more reliable and stable international partner, particularly with nations that share its commitment to multilateralism and a rules-based global order." (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47620)
The True and Permanent Cost of American Political Realignment (The Collateral Damage)
The evidence presented in this analysis demonstrates that American political realignment has permanently altered the US-Canada relationship in ways that cannot be reversed. The collateral damage extends far beyond measurable economic impacts to include:
For Americans assessing these developments, it is crucial to recognize that standard economic metrics—GDP growth, stock market performance, trade volumes—capture only a fraction of the actual consequences. The full accounting must include the permanent damage to what was once the world's most successful bilateral relationship.
The US-Canada relationship, built over generations of cooperation and shared sacrifice, represented a valuable asset that required careful stewardship. The political realignment that began in 2017 and accelerated in 2025 has imposed immeasurable costs on both nations, but particularly on the United States, which has lost the unconditional trust and cooperation of its closest ally. This represents a form of collateral damage from which there can be no recovery, only adaptation to a new and fundamentally altered relationship.
A Personal Reflection….
As I conclude this academic analysis, I feel compelled to share a more personal perspective. This paper has examined the political, economic, and diplomatic dimensions of a fractured relationship, but behind these abstractions lies a deeply human story.
I grew up admiring the United States. While proudly Canadian, I spent significant portions of my life south of the border—playing hockey as a young boy across Texas, Oklahoma, California, Michigan, and New York; studying at the University of Miami in Coral Gables; and maintaining lifelong friendships with Americans, including my best friend who served as my best man and resides in Pennsylvania.
As Canadians, we have weathered numerous disputes with the United States over trade, tariffs, and even heated international hockey matches. These tensions, while occasionally frustrating, were always understood as disagreements between friends. But the recent challenges to Canadian sovereignty represent a fundamental crossing of a line that has altered something essential in the relationship.
What troubles me most is not just the geopolitical implications, but the personal transformation this has forced within me. For the first time, I find myself questioning a friendship I once took for granted. This shift in perspective represents perhaps the most profound form of collateral damage—the loss of goodwill between people who once viewed each other as natural allies.
When nations lose the ability to disagree respectfully without threatening fundamental aspects of identity and sovereignty, both sides ultimately lose. The deterioration of this relationship impoverishes us all, diminishing possibilities for cooperation in a world that desperately needs examples of successful international partnerships.
"Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies. Those whom nature hath so joined together, let no man put asunder."
- From John F. Kennedy, addressing the Canadian Parliament in 1961
Additional References/Citations
American University. (2025, March 21). What's Next for Canada? Retrieved from https://www.american.edu/sis/news/20250321-whats-next-for-canada.cfm
Americas Quarterly. (2025). U.S.-Canada Ties May Face Even Bigger Trouble. Retrieved from https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/u-s-canada-ties-may-face-even-bigger-trouble/
Analyzify. (2025). US-Canada Trade Statistics: New Tariffs & Impact. Retrieved from https://analyzify.com/hub/us-canada-trade-statistics
Angus Reid Institute. (2025, January). 51st State: Canadian resolve in saying 'no' continues, while a majority now believe Trump is serious about annexation. Retrieved from https://angusreid.org/trump-carney-51st-state-canada-usa/
Angus Reid Institute. (2025, March). Canadian resolve in saying 'no' continues, while a majority now believe Trump is serious about annexation. Retrieved from
https://angusreid.org/trump-carney-51st-state-canada-usa/
Canada Energy Regulator. (2025). Market Snapshot: Overview of Canada-U.S. Energy Trade. Retrieved from
https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/market-snapshots/2025/market-snap shot-overview-of-canada-us-energy-trade.html
Congressional Research Service. (2025). Canada: Background and U.S. Relations. Retrieved from https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47620/4
Cornell University. (2025). U.S.-Canada relationship entering 'sad chapter'. Retrieved from https://as.cornell.edu/news/us-canada-relationship-entering-sad-chapter
Council on Foreign Relations. (2019). The U.S.-Canada Relationship. CFR Backgrounder.
Devon, D. (2025, March). [Letter to Stephanie Hayes regarding Canada-US relations]. Personal correspondence.
Energy Policy Institute at Columbia University. (2025).
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/the-impact-of-trump-tariffs-on-us-canada-minerals-and metals-trade/
Hayes, S. (2025, March 14). Why won't Publix put a Canadian flag on a cake?
https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2025/03/14/publix-canada-flag-cake-trump-tariffs-column/
Institute for Research on Public Policy. (2025, March).
https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/march-2025/canada-us-annexation-defences/
Norton Rose Fulbright. (2025). US steel and aluminum tariffs and Canadian retaliatory tariffs now in effect. Retrieved from
https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-ca/knowledge/publications/406cab29/us-steel-and-alumi num-tariffs-and-canadian-retaliatory-tariffs-now-in-effect
Peace Diplomacy. (2025, January 21). Rethinking Canada's Economic Sovereignty in an Era of American Unpredictability. Retrieved from
https://peacediplomacy.org/2025/01/21/rethinking-canadas-economic-sovereignty-in-an-era-of-a merican-unpredictability/
Pew Research Center. (2024, June). Views of the US around the world. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/06/11/views-of-the-u-s/
Statistics Canada. (2025). Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum Exports, 2024-2025. Ottawa.
Thompson, J. H. (2017). Canadian-American Relations in the Age of Uncertainty. Woodrow Wilson Center Canada Institute.
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